Winter off to a ‘strange start’ says NCRS data

An unusually warm and wet start to winter has left Sanpete County and much of Central Utah entering January with sharply reduced snowpack despite near-normal precipitation, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s first water supply outlook report of 2026.
“This winter has gotten off to a very strange start with record-breaking warm conditions and poor snow cover,” said Jordan Clayton, data collection officer and supervisor for the NRCS Utah Snow Survey. “We have had very high snow levels in the winter storms that have hit our state, resulting in an unusual amount of liquid precipitation being received at mid and high elevations.”
In the San Pitch River Basin, which supplies water to much of Sanpete County, snow water equivalent measured just 31 percent of the 1991–2020 median as of Jan. 1. That compares with 104 percent at the same time last year. December precipitation in the basin reached 68 percent of normal, leaving water-year-to-date totals at 72 percent of median.
Reservoir storage in the San Pitch Basin stood at zero percent of capacity on Jan. 1, down from 17 percent one year earlier, according to NRCS figures.
Clayton said the warm storms have benefited soil moisture but failed to build meaningful snowpack.
“While our mountain soil moisture has benefited, a condition that may promote snowmelt runoff efficiency this spring, our snowpack is shallow and dense at most locations around the state, and absent in others,” he said.
Conditions in nearby Central Utah watersheds show similar stress. The Upper Sevier River Basin recorded snowpack at 39 percent of median, while the Lower Sevier Basin dropped to just 10 percent, among the lowest readings statewide. Upper Sevier reservoir storage declined from 59 percent last year to 26 percent of capacity.
Across Utah, snowpack averaged 56 percent of median on Jan. 1, compared with 94 percent at the same time in 2025. Clayton noted that snowpack conditions improved slightly following early January storms, but large portions of the state continue to lag.
“While our statewide snow water equivalent increased from 56 percent of normal to 75 percent after the early January storms, we are still way well below where we want to be,” he said.
As of Jan. 1, 2026, SNOTEL monitoring sites across Utah reported record-low snow water equivalent, with eight more experiencing their second-worst conditions. Even after early January storms, 14 sites remained at record lows.
Despite weak snowpack, precipitation totals have been relatively strong. December precipitation statewide measured 107 percent of normal, pushing water-year-to-date totals to 119 percent after early January storms. Soil moisture at SNOTEL sites ranked near the 95th percentile statewide.
Clayton cautioned that early-season runoff forecasts carry significant uncertainty.
“January 1 forecasts have significant uncertainty compared with those issued during spring months and are meant to be advisory only,” he said, adding that this winter’s conditions have been “particularly challenging for modeling snowmelt runoff.”
Statewide reservoir storage stood at 62 percent of capacity on Jan. 1, down from 75 percent last year. Central Utah basins generally trailed that average, raising concerns for irrigation supplies and municipal water systems if snowpack does not improve later this winter.
NRCS data identified 1990, 2010, 2014 and 2024 as comparable winters based on current snowpack levels. Clayton said those analogs offer some reason for caution rather than certainty.
“Three of those four winters finished the snowpack season above normal,” he said. “So we’ll keep our fingers crossed that this winter similarly starts to ramp up soon.”
For Sanpete County and much of Central Utah, however, the outlook entering midwinter remains unsettled, with water supply outcomes hinging on colder storms that have yet to arrive.